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COMMENTARY OF THE DAY
By
Robert Namer
May 12, 2026
American drivers have paid an additional $8.4 billion in fuel costs since the Iran war started, according to a new estimate from the Joint Economic Committee's Democratic minority. It may be a little higher before prices go down.
The lawmakers' calculation is based on daily average gasoline prices as tracked by AAA between Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, through March 31. The figure also draws on information from auto researcher Edmunds on the tank sizes of top-selling gas vehicles in the U.S. and on federal fuel consumption data from the Federal Highway Administration and Energy Information Administration. The average cost of gas across the U.S. rose to $4.08 a gallon on Thursday after topping $4 earlier this week for the first time since 2022, according to AAA data.
Drivers of Toyota RAV4s now spend $58.26 to fill up their tanks, an increase of $15.02, or 35%, from before the war, the analysis finds. A Ford F-150 pickup truck costs $144.65 to fill up, an increase of $37.29, while Toyota Camry sedan owners are spending $52.23 to fill their tank, or $13.46 more than before the conflict started last month.
Despite higher gas prices in March, credit card data shows consumers are continuing to spend, suggesting households so far are weathering the financial impact of higher fuel costs, according to Navy Federal Credit Union. But the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, released on March 31, shows fewer Americans are planning big-ticket purchases over the next six months, a sign some households could be feeling the effects of higher fuel costs.
"The strain is starting to show, especially as gas hits $4 a gallon nationwide," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an email. "It's almost certainly going to be a muted second quarter for spending and GDP growth as the worst of the inflation shock hits consumers."
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